The Sixth World Water Forum was held recently in Marseilles. A number of experts reinforced the commonly held view that water could be the source of armed conflict across the world.

Ben Braga, VP of the World Water Council stated, ‘Governments need to wake up and adopt policies towards efficient water use.’ He also pointed out that the water wars are likely where more than one country shares rivers and lakes.


(Image via KittWalker photostream under Creative Commons)

There were news reports (5th September 2010) that the Amazon river is at its lowest levels since records began – is it some 4m below its normal level. The reason is lack of rain.

I also think this water problem is being worsened by countries building dams for hydroelectric purposes which have a profound impact on the downstream ecosystems. We are already seeing dams causing problems in several counties where water resources are already scarce.

As we continue to find increasing oil and gas resources it does not look like we are going to run out sometime soon. However, with increasing droughts and floods our fresh water is coming under increasing stress. Unfortunately we can survive a lot longer without oil and gas than we can without water.

How soon will it be before the biggest problem we face is a water shortage.

Some interesting water facts:
• 70% of the world’s water consumption is in agriculture.
• 1,000 litres of water is needed to produce 1kg of wheat
• 13,000 litres of water is needed to produce 1kg of beef
• More than 1 billion people lack access to reliable, safe drinking water
• Over 2.5 billion people do not have lavatories or other forms of sanitation
• ‘Experts’ are predicting that by 2015 two-thirds of the worlds people will live in water stressed countries.

Note: Source UNEP so these ‘facts’ have a low Greenwash rating.

This is a follow-up to my blog on losing engineers due to the recession and getting school leavers into the industry. The same CIBSE Journal discussed the difficulties that face young engineers in finding and/or keeping a job.

I remember the recession that seriously impacted the UK construction industry in the late 80’s/early 90’s there were a few years where student numbers entering the industry fell significantly. This ‘lost generation’ has been missed by the industry since then. As pointed out in the editorial we are seeing young Building Services Engineers moving out of the profession into the energy-supply sector working for utilities or renewables companies. This could well mean another lost generation which will pose a future problem when more demanding regulations are going to make the need for top class Building Services Engineers even more necessary.

So when the recession is over how can we attract kids into the Building Services sector?

I mentioned in my previous blog passionate people can help make passionate engineers. There are many kids who are worried about the environment and want to do something about it. Now imagine getting these kids as they are deciding upon a career, getting them to understand the impact of buildings on our environment and let them see that they can make a significant difference. Same goes for students interested in Architecture. Let’s make the future building designers – Eco-Warriors – that have both the enthusiasm and aptitude to tackle sustainable design more aggressively.

Today’s kids are also much more tactile than previous generations as they have been brought up on Playstation’s and Wii’s. This will make them more willing to use building simulation tools and computer technology that will be key components in achieving the highest standard of sustainable design.

However, to make the work environment more conducive for this next generation and for the future of the construction industry we would need the long awaited changes to the construction industry to take place. Consequently, I think professional engineering organisations such as CIBSE (UK), ARBS (Australia) and ASHRAE (North America) and architectural organisations such as the RIBA (UK) and AIA in North America should be helping in making the construction industry more appealing in order to attract more high quality students into the industry. To achieve this objective it is important that academic institutions play their part to provide the course that excite and stimulate students and provide them with the knowledge to become Eco-Warriors.

Am I confident of success? Unfortunately not in the timescale I believe we need to mitigate climate change.

So we are starting to see the first assessments of the failure to reach any significant agreement at Copenhagen at the end of 2009.  A study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research in Germany has been published in Nature and it reports that a rise of at least 3°C by 2100 is likely.

The report states that the current national emissions targets could lock the world into exceeding 3 °C warming.  A summary of the report states:
• Nations will probably meet only the lower ends of their emissions pledges in the absence of a binding international agreement
• Nations can bank an estimated 12 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalents surplus allowances for use after 2012
• Land-use rules are likely to result in further allowance increases of 0.5 GtCO2-eq per year
• Global emissions in 2020 could thus be up to 20% higher than today
• Current pledges mean a greater than 50% chance that warming will exceed 3°C by 2100
• If nations agree to halve emissions by 2050, there is still a 50% chance that warming will exceed 2°C and will almost certainly exceed 1.5°C

In the Nature article, the Potsdam team describing the COP15 pledges as “paltry”.  “The prospects for limiting global warming to 2°C – or even to 1.5°C, as more than 100 nations demand – are in dire peril,” they conclude.

From the BBC Website: Chances of a 3°C rise are higher than evens, the team calculates (simplified from Potsdam Institute’s Nature paper)

Personally I think they are being optimistic.  I believe we will see 3°C much sooner than suggested in this report. 

So if these figures are correct then the most serious impact of climate change is over 90 years away, then why worry and let’s find a great big sand pit to bury our heads in, as most of us will be dead and it is someone else’s problem!  Oh but wait a minute if we have 3°C rise which results in one or more of the tipping points being reached then desertification will increase around the planet and we will all be up to our necks in sand.  So we have two options: get used to sand or reduce our carbon emissions dramatically.

Luxury toilet paper might be soft and gentle but it is bad for the environment as reported in the New Scientist (24 April 2010, Issue 2757).

Some facts:
• 60 million rolls of toilet paper are flushed away in Europe every day
• The average American gets though 57 sheets a day, six times the global average.

That second fact is seriously weird.  If that is the ‘average’ what are the biggest users doing?  Literally!

The Worldwatch Institute in Washington DC highlighted the wastage of paper in rich and rapidly developing nations.  In the US, 14.5 million tonnes of office paper and newspaper will be dumped this decade, despite being ideal for recycling as toilet paper – which is probably a better way to ‘dump’ the waste.

The potential savings are huge: recycled paper uses 64 per cent less energy and 50 per cent less water, and creates 74 per cent less air pollution, compared with paper made from virgin wood pulp.

The biggest obstacle to recycling, says Worldwatch, is a preference for luxury, multi-ply tissues.  We are such softies.

Whilst western nations are the biggest users of toilet paper, the problem is increasing as its use is increasing in China and Africa.

In doing some Climate Change research I came across the following website: www.copenhagendiagnosis.com. This website reports on the work conducted by a number of scientists to update the information on which the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) based their Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). This report was produced prior to the Copenhagen Climate Summit (COP15) to ensure the attendees had the most up to date information with which to make the correct decision.

Whilst all the COP15 attendees would be well meaning I doubt many would have read this report, if they had I believe we might have had a more positive outcome.

Let me go back to the IPCC Fourth Assessment report. I think most people that have objectively reviewed the report would have had two problems with the report:

> Some of the scientific research on which AR4 was based was slightly old and very quickly it was clear from scientific research available by the time the report was published suggested that the AR4 assumptions were low.
> The assumptions drawn in the report, although shocking to many people, were somewhat sugar coated and the situation is much worse than the report suggested.  Remember several governments helped water down parts of the IPCC report.

Read the rest of this entry »

Over the last few months there have been a number of highly publicised ‘gates’ relating to climate change e.g. ‘Climategate’ relating to the leaking of emails and issues to do with the freedom of information act at the University of East Anglia and the ‘himalayangate’ where it appears the glaciers will not melt as quickly as predicted by the IPCC. In addition it appears that the Netherlands has less area below sea level than the IPCC reported and that rain-fed North African crop production may not be cut by over 50% by 2020 due to climate change.

Isn’t this shocking! Does this not prove that the sceptics have been right all along? No.

It is sensational press coverage that have helped shock public opinion such that in a recent UK poll 25% of those polled (circa 1000 people) say they do not believe in Global Warming which is up dramatically from 15% polled prior to Climategate. Wow! What a change in opinion. This is sensational.

Now call me a sceptic if you wish but with a slightly different perspective I believe this information is saying something fundamentally different.

Firstly, nowhere in any of these ‘shocking’ revelations the issue is not IF there is a problem but WHEN it will occur. This is a very important distinction. However, by exposing the error of “when” the media are making the public automatically assume that the “if” is also an error. For clarity: the Himalayan glaciers will melt; with sea rise large, parts of Netherlands will flood; and if the rains to North Africa do shift as the science indicates then crops will be substantially reduced.

Secondly, whilst the sceptics are picking at the silly errors/poor science in the IPCC report it is detracting from all the other correct facts and good science in the report. Also there are probably more climatologists that believe that the IPCC report is underplaying the seriousness of the problem and we will see the impact of climate change much sooner than the IPCC suggest. These prophets of doom don’t seem to get the same press as the climate sceptics. I wonder why? Read the rest of this entry »

As I expected COP15, the Copenhagen Climate Summit, did not deliver the commitment to reduce carbon emission that is so urgently needed. Based upon recent press regarding ‘manipulation’ of data (University of Anglia) and not checking the sources of information (IPCC – Glacier melting in the Himalayas) it is unsurprising that we are seeing doubts spreading amongst the public that Climate Change is an issue.

Consequently more precious time is being lost offsetting the worst impacts of climate change. Hence the reason why I am starting my own blog: to help provide information, particularly to building designers, developers and owners to influence them to voluntarily make more aggressive carbon emission reductions.

I have been involved in trying to minimise energy consumption in buildings for over 30 years. I think, with the help of many others, I can demonstrate that I have helped make a difference. However, much, much more is needed to be done because I fear Climate Change and its potential impact.

I fear Climate Change less for myself but for my sons and their future children. I fear it for you and your children. I fear it for homosapians and most forms of life on this beautiful blue planet. Scientists believe there have been five major mass extinctions on Earth in the last billion or so years. Let’s make sure we do not cause and are not part of a sixth major mass extinction. If so, sadly it is unlikely that another species will evolve that have science, art, architecture and soccer and be able to understand our demise, so far we are the only species that have managed that out of millions of species.

I don’t believe we need to ‘Save the Planet’ – we need to ‘Save the Human Race’ and the sooner we accept the realistic threat hanging over most of us and over future generations the sooner we will take more positive action. Read the rest of this entry »